Apr 7 2025, 6:10pm | 6 min read

Florida vs. Houston Prediction: Can Cougars Limit Walter Clayton Jr., Gators Early in National Title Game?

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The Alamodome in San Antonio will be the site for tonight's NCAA National Championship between the Florida Gators and Houston Cougars. LJ Cryer and the Cougars are boasting the best defense in the country, and they have one last chance to cement themselves in history against Walter Clayton Jr. and the Gators. Christian Odjakjian thinks the Cougars can slow down the high-flying Florida offense tonight in his Florida vs. Houston National Championship prediction.

ANALYSIS

Florida vs. Houston Prediction: Can Cougars Limit Walter Clayton Jr., Gators Early in National Title Game?

Florida and Houston square off in the National Championship tonight in San Antonio.

Both teams have gone on impressive runs to reach the final. Florida has knocked off three straight KenPom top-10 opponents, while Houston has taken down four straight in the top 15.

Each has also needed some late-game magic to survive. Walter Clayton Jr.’s clutch performances lifted the Gators over UConn and Texas Tech, while Houston pulled off an improbable 14-point comeback in the final eight minutes.

Who will have the last laugh tonight? Check out this full breakdown and analysis of Florida vs. Houston in the title game.

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Florida vs. Houston Odds

Moneyline: Florida (-115), Houston (-105)
Spread: Florida -1 (-105), Houston +1 (-115)
Total: Over 140.5 (-115), Under 140.5 (-105)

Florida vs. Houston Date, Time, and Where to Watch

Date: Monday, April 7, 2025
Game Time: 8:49 PM ET
Where to Watch: CBS

Click here for latest Florida vs. Houston Odds

Florida vs. Houston Prediction

The first thing that comes to mind with this matchup is how Houston handles Clayton. He’s put together one of the best tournament runs from a guard in recent memory. There are a lot of good players on this Florida team, but Clayton has clearly been the engine behind their title push.

Houston’s aggressive ball screen defense — bringing two to the ball — should force Clayton to give it up and make others like Alijah Martin and Will Richard do more of the scoring. Those guys are more than capable, but the idea that Houston can get it out of Clayton’s hands consistently is definitely a pro-Houston angle. He’s just been that good. When Denzel Aberdeen is on the floor, Clayton can play off the ball more — something to watch tonight. His point prop is set at 19.5, and if Houston keeps him under that, I like their chances.

On paper, Florida’s offensive rebounding stands out as a potential mismatch. They ranked 5th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, while Houston ranks 122nd in defensive rebounding. That said, the Cougars have shown they can hold their own, allowing just 10 offensive boards to Duke and 12 to Tennessee — both strong units on the glass.

Florida is also lethal in transition, ranking 2nd nationally in fast break points per game. But Houston’s ability to control tempo (5th slowest pace in the country) and take care of the ball (20th in turnover rate) gives me confidence they can keep the Gators from getting out and running.

I wrote before the Houston–Duke game that the Blue Devils were as well-built as any team to attack this Houston defense. And while I still believe that on paper, Houston’s ability to hold Duke to just 67 points speaks for itself.

Offensively, Houston is pretty straightforward: Cryer and Uzan create off screens, they let threes fly (2nd in 3P% nationally), they post up J’Wan Roberts, and they crash the glass (10th in OReb%). Florida has strong perimeter defenders in Martin and Richard to throw at the guards, but this isn’t a matchup those two haven’t seen before.

Bottom line: if Houston can get the ball out of Clayton’s hands consistently and keep Florida’s bigs off the glass, they look like the right side to me. However, my favorite bet here is Houston first half. I expect the Gators to struggle to score here early as they get adjusted to this Houston defense. Plus, Florida has been a second-half team all tournament, especially on short preps (UConn and Texas Tech).

Florida vs. Houston Pick

Pick: Houston 1H ML +105 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best price on Florida vs. Houston odds

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Article Author

Christian Odjakjian

@ODJhoops

NCAAB

Lock in for March Madness with oddschecker's premier college hoops expert, Christian Odjakjian. Better known as ODJ Hoops, he got his start covering Wake Forest basketball for five years. Christian is a basketball savant, and uses advanced data to inform his CBB betting decisions.

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