MLB Player Props Today: Can Gunnar Henderson, Elly De La Cruz Shine on Wednesday, April 16?

Every single team takes the field on Wednesday with a mixture of both day and night games on tap. Home runs came aplenty yesterday including Tyler Soderstrom’s pair of home runs to take the MLB lead (8). Juan Soto has also seemingly found his rhythm, hitting home runs in back-to-back games.

On the flip side, questions continue to swirl on when Vlad Guerrero Jr. will break through and find his first home run. Tonight he’ll have his hands full with the season debut of Spencer Strider, and I’m definitely not running to place any tickets on the new-500 million dollar man. 

Instead, there are two superstars that I am looking to buy in plus matchups on Wednesday night. Both hitters have been hitting the ball extremely hard, the home runs have just not followed suit. 

Without further ado, here are my two favorite home run props for Wednesday, April 16.

Get your first month of oddschecker+ right now for just $0.99. Don't miss out on this early season deal!

MLB Player Props Today: Wednesday, April 16

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Can Gunnar Henderson finally break through for his first home run of the season? I believe there’s value on the shortstop despite his struggles since returning from injury. 

While Henderson has struck out over a third of his at-bats (35.9%), when he makes contact with the ball, it’s crushed. His average exit velocity (98.6) and hard-hit rate (66.7%) are both in the 100th percentile of all hitters. Lifting the ball a touch more could open the floodgates. 

Despite Henderson’s early-season struggles – started 4-for-29 with 12 strikeouts – he is starting to look much better at the plate. Over the last two games, Henderson is 5-for-9 with a double and triple. A long ball is brewing.

This is also a plus matchup in my opinion. Gavin Williams takes the mound for the Guardians and while he’s been great in a limited sample this season – 2.8% barrel, 30.6% hard-hit rate – I expect him to regress back to his career averages (5.9% and 40.5%, respectively). 

Henderson squared off against Williams in one game last season and took the right-hander deep. Williams is a fly-ball pitcher, a plus for home run betting, too. 

It won’t be long until Henderson’s barrel rate (4.2%) takes a jump back toward the mean (11%). 

Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+450) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

From an underlying metrics perspective, there’s no reason why Elly De La Cruz should be struggling. Positive regression is coming for the 23-year-old, who has been crushing the baseball. 

De La Cruz is hitting just .224 with a .403 slugging percentage this season. But Baseball Savant pins the shortstop at a .284 xBA and .577 xSLG. He is barreling the ball nearly 20% of the time (93rd percentile) and is among the top 10% of hitters in hard-hit rate. 

In a hitter-friendly park and the wind blowing out ever-so-slightly, De La Cruz is a buy here. 

Bryce Miller takes the mound for Seattle. The fastball-heavy right-hander is a fly-ball pitcher with a career 1.1 HR/9 rate. He has dealt with barrel rate issues all career (9.8%), which is not great for the right-hander, but a positive for home runs bettors. 

We also get De La Cruz hitting left-handed, which is where you want to buy the superstar. Last season, 15-of-21 home runs given up by Miller came against lefties (71%). That’s similar for De La Cruz, who had an OPS of .876 against right-handed pitching, a number that dropped to .661 against southpaws (76% of HRs came against righties, too). 

Despite his leap in barrels, xSLG and hard-hit rate – all career bests in the opening month – De La Cruz has just three home runs. He’s also striking out less, a positive when backing the free-swinging switch hitter. I like buying De La Cruz here against a fly-ball pitcher like Miller who has struggled to limit barrels in his career.

Wednesday's MLB Player Props

• Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+600) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
• Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+450) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

MLB ODDS

• Click here for the latest MLB Odds
• Looking for more MLB Picks? See what's new from our oddschecker team
• The Dodgers are looking destined to repeat as World Series Champs, can anyone stop them? Check the odds