As we head into the quarter-finals of the Nations League, let's take a look at who the bookmakers think will win the competition.
The 2024–25 UEFA Nations League has reached the quarter-final stage, with eight of Europe’s top teams - Netherlands, Spain, Croatia, France, Denmark, Portugal, Italy, and Germany—set to compete in two-legged ties
This edition marks the first time a two-legged quarter-final format has been introduced.
Defending champions Spain, who won the 2022/2023 title against Croatia in a penalty shootout, are among the favourites alongside Germany, who showcased impressive attacking form in the group stage as they went unbeaten, scoring 18 goals in the process.
France and Portugal also enter the quarter-finals with strong credentials, making the race for a spot in the finals on 8 June 2025 highly competitive.
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Nations League Winner Odds
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | 7/2 | 22% |
| France | 4/1 | 20% |
| Germany | 4/1 | 20% |
| Portugal | 9/2 | 18% |
Who is the favourite to win the Nations League?
Spain are a favourites to win the Nations League a best price of 7/2 with BetVictor.
As defending Nations League and Euro 2024 champions, Luis de la Fuente’s side are in top form. Their blend of youthful flair—Yamal and Pedri—and experienced midfield have given them a formidable edge in recent times and proven to be a fantastic watch.
Facing the Netherlands won’t be easy, but their group-stage dominance (five wins and one draw) and recent success suggest they have the quality to reach the finals in June.
France are second favourites at a best price of 4/1 with various bookmakers.
They remain a powerhouse despite some inconsistency at the Euros where they struggled to find the net, scoring just four times despite having one of the best attacks in international football.
However, their star man Mbappe, is in unstoppable form this seaon, scoring 32 goals in all competitions. If Mbappé can transfer this form to the international stage, they’re strong contenders to lift the trophy.
A quarter-final against Croatia, whom they beat in the 2018 World Cup final, presents a manageable challenge.
Germany are joint second favourites at a best price of 4/1. Under Julian Nagelsmann, the team is transitioning, blending young stars like Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala with experienced leaders such as Joshua Kimmich and Antonio Rüdiger.
Their quarter-final matchup against Italy, will be an important test of where Nagelsmann has the team eight months on from their Euro 2024 quater-final exit.
If they win this tie then the Finals will be hosted in Germany so their chances will only improve from there.
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